The time for polling process for election of 52 Senators from all the four provinces, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the federal capital ended at 4pm.
A total of 131 candidates are in the run for the elections, the polling for which started at 9am in the provincial assembly halls and the parliament house Islamabad.
According to the Election Commission of Pakistan, 1,600 ballot papers for Punjab, 800 for Sindh, 600 for KP, 300 for Balochistan, 800 for Islamabad and 50 for Fata have been printed and handed over to the respective returning officers.
Statistically, 20 candidates are contesting for 12 seats from Punjab, 33 are competing against 12 seats from Sindh, 26 against 11 seats from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 25 against 11 seats from Balochistan, 24 against four seats from FATA and five against two seats from the federal capital.
The Senate comprises 104 members with 23 members from each province, eight from FATA and four members from Islamabad Capital Territory and the election on half of the seats (52) takes place after every three years.
According to the code of conduct issued by the ECP, the Rangers and Frontier Corps personnel will be deployed outside all the polling stations while returning officers have been entrusted with magisterial power during the polling process.
52 Senators would be retiring on March 11 while the one emerging victorious in Senate polls would be taking the oath of their office, the follwing day.
Expectancy of Victory for PML-N
Although the returning officers would be announcing the official results after 4 pm, observers have initiated guessing the probable outcome of polls with precise calculations.
As former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif awarded tickets to the Senate aspirants, the apex court’s decision regarding Election Act 2017 case declared his actions null and void and consequently the candidates of PML-N would be contesting in an independent capacity today.
The embattled PML-N has 27 senators currently and nine of them are going to retire this month. The party is expected to win at least 15 seats after which its total membership in the upper house may rise to 33.
The PML-N with 16 lawmakers in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly is expected to win one seat from the province.
The party, now being steered by Chief Minister Punjab Shehbaz Sharif is set to win two seats from Islamabad — one general and one technocrat seat because Mushahid Hussain Sayed, who resigned as Senator last month will easily win the technocrat seat from Islamabad as a PML-N-backed candidate.
PTI’s Strength
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which got representation in the Senate for the first time in 2015 is expected to double its strength today. The party is likely to win six of the 11 seats from the KP Assembly because it has 61 MPAs.
Moreover, as the PTI and the Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) are coalition partners in the province, the two parties can strike a deal on the distribution of seats with a possibility that the JI may also get one Senate seat from KP.
PPP’s Majority in Sindh
Pakistan Peoples Party may win one seat from KP, however, its strength lies in Sindh where the party is expected to win eight seats out of the 12 because the party enjoys the support of 94 lawmakers in the Sindh assembly.
Interestingly, the PPP will be the biggest loser in terms of representation in the Senate as 18 of its 26 senators are set to retire, however, the party is likely to win back nine seats consequently gaining a strength of mere 17 members.
MQM’s Turbulent Journey
Apart from PPP, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement’s Pakistan faction would be having an interesting day owing to the emergence of bifurcation last month.
It is believed that if the MQM remains united under Dr Farooq Sattar, then the party can easily snatch four out of 16 seats from Sindh because the party has a strength of 50 in the house.
Fazal-ur-Rehman’s JUI-F
One of the strongest political brokers, Fazal-ur-Rehman might not find the Senate polls interesting because three out of its five senators are going to retire and given the party position in the provincial assemblies, the JUI-F is expected to get only two seats.
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party and National Party
Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party and the National Party will be able to improve their representation in the Senate. Both the parties have three senators each and none of them is retiring this year. In the elections, both the parties are expected to secure three seats each from Balochistan, doubling their strength in the Senate.
Political Bigwigs In the Run
A few of the contestants are prominent among those in the run for the polls from Punjab against the seven general seats including former Punjab Governor Chaudhry Mohammad Sarwar as a PTI candidate, Kamil Ali Agha (PML-Q) and PML-N-backed Asif Kirmani, Musadik Malik, Haroon Akhtar Khan and Rana Mehmoodul Hassan.
PML-N-backed independent candidates for the two seats reserved for women are Prime Minister Shahid Khan Abbasi’s sister Saadia Abbasi and Nuzhat Sadiq. Meanwhile, the PTI has fielded Andaleeb Abbas for women seat from Punjab, Dawn News reported.
The three PML-N-backed independent candidates in the run for two technocrat seats include former finance minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar.
Bigwigs from Sindh include sitting Senate chairman Raza Rabbani, Mustafa Nawaz Khokhar, Maula Bux Chandio, Murtaza Wahab (late Fauzia Wahab’s son), Kamran Tessori, Ahmad Chinoy, Anis Ahmad Qaimkhani and Farogh Naseem.
From Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, former chief minister Pir Sabir Shah, PML-N backed Ali Afzal Khan Jadoon, Faisal Sakhi Butt (PPP) Talha Mehmood (JUI-F), Maulana Samiul Haq, Azam Swati, Anisa Zeb Tahirkheli, Rubina Khalid and Naeema Kishwar are amongst the prominent candidates.
Former Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf’s brother Raja Imran Ashraf is also aspiring to secure a seat in the house.
Province-wise distribution
Punjab
Punjab Assembly has total 371 seats but its existing strength is 367. Under the formula of Senate elections, 53 votes of provincial lawmakers will be required to win a single general seat from Punjab Assembly.
For technocrat and women seats, the candidates overpowering their rivals would be declared. PML-N has 310 seats in the province, PTI 30, PPP and PML-Q have eight seats each while five are independent members, paving way for PML-N to comfortably secure victory, at least from Punjab.
Sindh
Sindh Assembly has 168 seats but its existing strength is 167. Twenty four votes will be required to win a single general seat from the Sindh Assembly. PPP has 95 seats, MQM has 50, PML-F nine, PML-N seven and PTI four.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
KP Assembly has 124 seats and its existing strength is 123. According to rules, 18 votes will be required to win a general seat from KPK. PTI has 61 members, PML-N and JU-F 16 each, Qaumi Watan Party 10, JI seven, PPP six and Awami National Party (ANP) has five lawmakers.
Balochistan
The Balochistan assembly, that recently elected its new chief minister has 65 seats and nine votes will be required to win a single general seat of Senate from there.
PML-N has 21 seats but most of the legislators have parted ways with the party. Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PKMAP) has 11 members, JUI-F eight while PML-Q has five members in the assembly.
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